Hurricanes are among the most costly natural hazards affecting communities worldwide, and they involve different hazard sources (i.e., wind, windborne debris, flood and rain). Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of future hurricanes. This presentation will illustrate a novel probabilistic Performance-Based Hurricane Engineering (PBHE) framework that disaggregates the risk assessment analysis into independent elementary components and innovatively accounts for concurrent, interacting and cascading hazards. The PBHE framework is extended to account for hazard (climate change) and vulnerability (structural aging) non-stationarity. Using a recently developed wind speed projection model and the climate projections in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, the loss analysis for a benchmark low-rise single-family house over a 50-year service life is performed. For this application example, the combined effects of climate change and structural aging can almost double the expected total losses during a 50-year service life when compared to the stationary conditions.
Speaker: Michele Barbato, UC Davis
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