Projecting Costs of Direct Air Capture

In her presentation, Katrin will discuss a newly developed methodology for projecting the costs of novel low-carbon technologies, with a focus on Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies. This research introduces a novel approach for projecting technology costs by assigning empirically grounded experience rates to technology components based on their similarity to mature technologies in terms of design complexity and customization needs. The methodology has been applied to three different DAC technologies, yielding probabilistic cost estimates critical for climate policymaking and energy systems and integrated assessment modeling. The methodology can be applied to any novel technology with a defined initial component scale, expanding the toolbox for technology cost forecasting. For DAC, the work sheds light on future cost trajectories and provides insights into how non-mature technologies can contribute to meeting the Paris climate goals.

Speaker: Katrin Sievert, Stanford University

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