Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery

Many published research results are false, and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. I will present a mathematical model of scientific discovery in the context of replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. This model provides a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. It is only a start, but it speaks directly to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science.

Speaker: Paul Smaldino, UC Davis