American Public Opinion on Climate Change and Its Impact on Voting in Congressional and Presidential Elections: New Evidence

In recent years, observers have speculated that the American public has become increasingly skeptical about the existence and potential threat of climate change and that the public desire for action by government on this issue has declined. In this talk, Jon Krosnick will present new survey evidence tracking public opinion in the nation and in Massachusetts to explore what changes have occurred in the entire population and in population subgroups. In addition, Dr. Krosnick will present the results of a new study examining whether candidates' positions on climate change policy have influenced their electoral success, using three methods of investigation: (1) analysis of the relation of candidate website statements on climate with the victory rates of Congressional candidates in 2010, (2) experiments embedded in surveys describing a hypothetical candidate running for a Senate seat, and (3) a statistical analysis predicting votes in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election using data collected from survey respondents before and after the election. The findings paint a portrait of the likely role of climate change in the upcoming elections.

Speaker: Jon Krosnick, Stanford University