Robust Decision Making and Deep Decarbonization

Deep decarbonization presents what the literature often calls a ‘wicked problem,’ that is, decision challenges that are not well-bounded, are framed differently by various stakeholders, involve deep uncertainties and non-linear dynamics, and are often not well-understood until after formulation of a solution. Robust Decision Making (RDM) is a quantitative, multi-scenario, multi-objective decision analytic approach for supporting decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty, that is, when the parties to a decision do not know or agree on the best model for relating actions to consequences or the likelihood of future events.  This talk will describe the RDM approach and some applications to the challenge of deep decarbonization, focused on the questions of policy persistence and of the finance of low-emitting technologies.

Speaker: Robert Lempert, RAND Corporation